Real Clear Politics

Alright, so this only has anything to do with the kids in that the election results this November will shape in some way the world they will live in.

That being said, I just have to get a couple of things off my chest, and this is my only outlet, so...

I am being driven crazy by the "daily tracking polls" that have been getting so much attention in the media lately. They mean nothing. Unfortunately, they may actually end up having an effect only because they are getting that attention from the media. For instance, if there continue to be persistent stories and headlines referring to the national polls showing that McCain is leading, then this may give him the aura of a winner, and lead to lots of stories that lean heavily towards the negative about the Obama campaign, as we saw with Hilary when Obama was on a roll during the primaries.

Yet, these polls are meaningless because we elect the president through the electoral college, and what really matters is the outcome in each individual state. So, what the media should really be reporting is what the individual polls of each state are showing, and what the result would be on the electoral map.

Luckily, somebody is doing it.

Thanks to the folks over at Real Clear Politics, we can see what the polls are really telling us right now. Their electoral map gives a variety of views. The standard view assumes that a state is safe if the average of the most recent polls has one candidate ahead by more than ten percentage points. Five to ten points, and the state is leaning toward that candidate, and under five points gets deemed a toss up.

Today, that is showing the following count:
Obama-217
McCain-174
Tossup-147

With 270 needed to win, that is a bit less than completely clear. Luckily, they have another view in which the state is given to whoever is winning in the polls, by however slim a margin. This no toss-up view stands at:
Obama-273
McCain-265

So, although the current national polls may indeed show a lead for McCain, based upon the polls for each state, Obama is actually currently ahead. To put it another way, if the election were today, and all of the polls correctly predicted the winner in each state, Obama would be elected President.

So, for me, a responsible press would be reporting that Obama is holding a slim lead in the race to become President right now.

Alright, now that that's off my chest, there are a couple interesting things about these maps. First, they allow you to create your own scenarios. There are other maps out there that do that, but what's great about this one is that they all of the poll numbers for each state so that you can make a more informed decision about putting a particular state in blue or red. Another thing is that they also have the results from the last two elections, so that, for instance, you may be tempted to give Obama Indiana because it's somewhat close and half the state gets the Chicago news, which is presumably Obama-friendly. But, it shows that Bush took it by over 20 points in the last election. So, it's nice to have that info, in this case to know that it's probably unlikely that Obama can wipe out that entire 20 points.

It's interesting that in the no toss-up view, Obama wins Colorado and New Hampshire, but otherwise it's exactly the same as the 2000 Bush v. Gore map. Meaning that Obama can win even if he loses Ohio and Florida. Of course, he has to carry Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Mexico.

In any case, the scariest scenario I came up with is starting with the no toss-up view, but changing New Hampshire from Obama to McCain (right now Obama is up by .3%, which has to be way inside the margin), which would give a dead heat tie, 269-269. What would happen then? Well, it would be decided by the House of Representatives. That sounds great if you're an Obama supporter, right? Well, it isn't, because "each State delegation has one vote". Which means that McCain only has to get to 269, but Obama has to get to 270.

Still, as it stands now, he's at 273. So, there's reason to worry, but not to panic...